[Gender and age factors affecting the mortality during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy]. / Effetti del genere e dell'età sugli eccessi di mortalità durante l'epidemia di COVID-19 in Italia.

BACKGROUND: the COVID-19 epidemic severely affected Italy among European countries causing a considerable number of deaths across the country, especially in Northern Italy, leading also to serious problems to the Italian healthcare system, in particular the overcrowding of Intensive Care Units (ICU). In literature, the debate on the overall mortality during the COVID-19 epidemic, directly and indirectly, associated with the disease, is still open. OBJECTIVES: to describe the time trend of the mortality in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic accounting for age, gender, and geographical areas. DESIGN: analysis of mortality trend, by region, age, and gender. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the Italian mortality data, released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), have been considered for the analyses. The data refer to the first four months of 2015-2019 and 2020, involving 7,270 municipalities, corresponding to 93% of the Italian population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the mortality rates in the first four months of 2015-2019 and 2020, age-adjusted, have been calculated together with the percent variation. The data were analysed by gender, age class (<65; >=65 years), Region, and geographical areas (Northern versus Central-Southern Italy). The overall daily mortality series have been represented as rates over 100,000 resident population. RESULTS: in addition to the geographical location, the age component was a major determinant of the mortality pattern. The greater increase in the overall mortality was evidenced among elderly subjects in the Northern Italian Regions most affected by the epidemic. In these areas, also gender component played an important role in determining the mortality excess: higher mortality rates in the first four months of 2020 are observed for males in comparison to female populations. CONCLUSIONS: this research reveals that the population components are an important issue in determining the COVID-19 mortality excess. For this reason, it is of primary importance to monitor mortality (overall and by COVID-19) by age and gender and to consider these components and the related factors (comorbidity, exposures affecting the lung) in the public prevention policies towards the protection of the most fragile population groups.

How Large Was the Mortality Increase Directly and Indirectly Caused by the COVID-19 Epidemic? An Analysis on All-Causes Mortality Data in Italy

<p>Objective: Overall mortality is a relevant indicator of the population burden during an epidemic. It informs on both undiagnosed cases and on the effects of health system disruption. Methods: We aimed at evaluating the extent of the total death excess during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. Data from 4433 municipalities providing mortality reports until April 15th, 2020 were included for a total of 34.5 million residents from all Italian regions. Data were analyzed by region, sex and age, and compared to expected from 2015–2019. Results: In both genders, overall mortality was stable until February 2020 and abruptly increased from March 1st onwards. Within the municipalities studied, 77,339 deaths were observed in the period between March 1st to April 15th, 2020, in contrast to the 50,822.6 expected. The rate ratio was 1.11 before age 60 and 1.55 afterwards. Both sexes were affected. The excess was greater in the regions most affected by COVID-19 but always exceeded the deaths attributed to COVID-19. The extrapolation to the total Italian population suggests an excess of 45,033 deaths in the study period, while the number of COVID–19 deaths was 21,046. Conclusion: Our paper shows a large death excess during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy;greater than the number attributed to it. Possible causes included both the undetected cases and the disruption of the Health Service organization. Timely monitoring of overall mortality based on unbiased nationwide data is an essential tool for epidemic control.</p>